I’ll just come out with it.
While I have absolutely no hard proof of this whatsoever, it’s almost as if the price pumps and the news releases are all artificially coordinated.
And no that’s not some sour grapes because I got rekt in a short trade, I still don’t have a good entry for that yet so that’s a separate topic entirely.
Here are some of the unusually big news that all seems to have come out at once.
eBay Teases Expansion Into Crypto Collectables
The only new thing to say about this is that the rationale for eBay getting into crypto is to allow it’s marketplace to be used to buy and sell digital collectables.
That would be exactly what I would expect eBay to do if it got into crypto.
I’m thinking back to the first time I even heard of eBay. It was when I used to collect the Star Trek Customisable Card Game and there was this one guy Mark who seemed to be able to get all the rare cards that he needed to complete his sets.
Then one day I asked him where he got his rare cards from and he said “eBay”, a word I had never heard before and did not know where eBay was.
So eBay going back to these roots and becoming a marketplace for digital tokenized collectables and game items is kind of nostalgic for me.
Microsoft Are Not Scared Of Bitcoin And Open Blockchains
Microsoft have decided they are not scared of open blockchains and are building an identity verification platform on Bitcoin.
This is not the closed source protectionist Microsoft from the 80’s and 90’s, this is the Microsoft with Satya Nadella at the helm as CEO who took over in 2014.
So while Facebook are allegedly building their own token, maybe even their own blockchain, Microsoft are building on Bitcoin.
The second paragraph of the article does a great job of giving a concise description of the project:
Project ION is an open-source, Layer 2 network built out of the public key infrastructure protocol Sidetree. In practice, “it is akin to Lightning, in that there is no secondary consensus among ION nodes,” a source close to the network’s development told Bitcoin Magazine.
So a “DID” or decentralized ID is created by submitting a Bitcoin transaction and paying the fee as normal.
However, once that’s done and recorded in the Bitcoin blockchain you can login / authenticate yourself simply by creating a signature with the same private key, which incurs no transaction cost.
Only when you want to update the state of your DID would you be required to submit a new Bitcoin transaction.
This is powered by the OP_RETURN feature of a Bitcoin transaction that allows you to include a small amount of text which can be structured to mean something to an external system.
What’s interesting about Microsoft’s solution is that you will be able to include all your DIDs in a single transaction.
In terms of adoption, the fact that this is a Microsoft solution means the door is already open to many potential integrators.
The last paragraph actually says:
a handful of companies have shown early interest in running ION nodes, including Bitcoin hardware and security firm Casa, data center Equinix and internet security company Cloudflare.
And then yesterday, out of the blue, this news was broken.
Bakkt to Roll Out First Bitcoin Futures Testing in July 2019
This isn’t actually what people think it is though.
In reality, Bakkt is still in the situation it was before this news came out. They are still sorting out their custody solution so they can get their regulatory approval.
That is the real barrier to them launching. So yes great, user testing and all that has to be done anyway, but even if that is successful, until we see a headline that says “Regulators Give Bakkt The Green Light To Launch”, let’s stay calm.
This is user testing in July so they are not launching Bakkt for another 2 months at least.
And then we have retail adoption news.
You Can Now ‘Spedn’ Bitcoin at GameStop, Barnes & Noble and More
When this news broke yesterday some news outlets got a bit carried away and went with headlines like “Amazon owned Wholefoods now accepts Bitcoin”.
On Monday, the payment processing startup Flexa announced the release of its new custodial crypto wallet SPEDN, which allows users to spend bitcoin, ethereum, bitcoin cash or GUSD at a variety of brick-and-mortar retailers.
Although the merchants receive fiat in the end, the partnership enables new possibilities for people looking to spend crypto as easily as they might use Apple Pay.
And thus we are entering the age of the hybrid. Where both the digital fiat and the cryptocurrencies reside on your phone at the same time, giving you the option to use ApplePay to pay with fiat, or a wallet app to pay with crypto.
I’m also not discounting that ApplePay will inevitably launch native support for cryptocurrencies as well.
That would be a massive boost to adoption since all the complexity of securing and backing up your keys would be invisibly handled by Apple and protected by your fingerprint.
Interesting here that one of the accepted coins in the GUSD.
Check out this quote about convenience for foreigners:
“Whether that’s a foreigner who’s coming to the U.S. and more easily able to participate in our economy or vice versa.”
This touches on a point Andreas Antonopolous made in a recent video. “If I board a plane with my credit card, am I carrying monetary units above $10,000? If I board a plane with the pin to my hardware wallet, am I carrying monetary units above $10,000?”
The answer is no because carrying access codes to the monetary units and carrying the monetary units themselves are different things.
We don’t transport digital money on our person in the same way that we don’t carry our Gmail around with us.
This makes another case for my crypto forex market where all fiat stablecoins trade against each other.
CoinDesk don’t say much about Wholefoods and Amazon but it’s the same story:
Let’s Do A Final Segment On The Markets Now
The results of drawing that Fibonacci retracement line yesterday are now pretty conclusive.
Bitcoin came down to that 23.6% level, used it as nice support and bounced higher from there.
Sticking with the BitMex chart here, which every way you slice it, we are now in a vertical move up.
Next consideration “Are we in an altcoin cycle yet?”
Here is one way to monitor that.
In TradingView, add the ticket symbols TOTAL and TOTAL2 to your watch list.
TOTAL charts the overall market cap.
TOTAL2 charts the market cap excluding Bitcoin.
Then on a day like today I can just look at the percentage gains for those two indexes.
If the two indexes are both up by an identical amount, say 5%, I know that new money has come into crypto as a whole and it has been evenly distributed between Bitcoin and altcoins.
What has been happening over the last few days is that the percentage gains for total market cap have been much higher, indicating that new money is flowing in but more of it into Bitcoin.
Today we have a slightly different picture with the market cap of altcoins increasing more than the overall.
We don’t necessarily need any new money to flow into the space to go into an altcoin cycle. It can happen simply when Bitcoin rallies become exhausted and people use the higher purchasing power of Bitcoin to buy alts, in anticipation of Bitcoin losing value against alts temporarily.
Case in point, XRP has finally woken up:
ETH also approaching it’s next line of resistance at 220. If it can break that we should be clear for a target of 305.
Let me know what you think in the comments or on Twitter @ChrisConeyInt